2026 NCAA Tournament Projections: Iowa State Surges, Michigan State Falls

Welcome to February in men's college basketball, where momentum can build or break in a matter of days. The Iowa State Cyclones are surging in Mike DeCourcy’s latest NCAA Tournament projections after a statement week that included a 70-67 win over the No. 2-ranked Houston Cougars — sealed by a 17-4 closing run — and a dominant 74-56 rout of No. 9 Kansas. Two top-10 victories in three days have elevated the Cyclones to a No. 2 seed in this week's updated bracket forecast. Meanwhile, Tom Izzo's Michigan State Spartans are sliding the other direction. A 92-71 loss to unranked Wisconsin — their third defeat in four games — dropped the Spartans to the 4-line in DeCourcy's latest projections. As the 2025-26 regular season quickly winds down, DeCourcy shares his latest NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament projections. EAST REGION SOUTH REGION MIDWEST REGION WEST REGION And it’s never too early to check in on the bubble. According to DeCourcy's projections, Auburn, UCLA, Indiana and Santa Clara are the last four teams in the tournament, while New Mexico, VCU, Missouri and Virginia Tech are the first four out. As for conference representation, the SEC and the Big Ten lead the way with 10 teams each, while the ACC and the Big 12 have eight teams in DeCourcy's latest tournament projections. The Big East and the West Coast have three teams represented, while the Mountain West has two teams. Selection Sunday is less than one month away, and these projections will inevitably evolve. For now, DeCourcy’s latest bracket forecast offers a clear snapshot of who’s rising, who’s falling and which programs are already building the résumés they’ll need when March arrives.