2026 NCAA Tournament Projections: UCLA, Ohio State Squarely On the Bubble

Welcome to the stretch run of the men’s college basketball season. With Selection Sunday less than a month away, the NCAA Tournament picture is becoming more clear and teams sitting on the bubble are looking for résumé-boosting wins anywhere they can get them. According to FOX Sports bracket forecaster Mike DeCourcy, the Ohio State Buckeyes are clinging to one of the final spots in the field, landing among his Last Four In. Meanwhile, UCLA has slipped to the wrong side of the cut line, sitting among DeCourcy’s First Four Out after back-to-back losses of 20-plus points for the first time since the 1944-45 season. The Buckeyes will get a prime opportunity to add to their résumé on Sunday when they travel to East Lansing to face the No. 15-ranked Michigan State Spartans. UCLA will look to bounce back Saturday against No. 10 Illinois. For two big-name brands, this weekend could go a long way toward determining whether they’re dancing or sweating on Selection Sunday. As the 2025-26 regular season quickly winds down, here are DeCourcy's NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament projections. EAST REGION SOUTH REGION MIDWEST REGION WEST REGION And it’s never too early to check in on the bubble. According to DeCourcy's projections, Santa Clara, Ohio State, VCU and New Mexico are the last four teams in the tournament, while TCU, UCLA, San Diego State and Auburn are the first four out. As for conference representation, the SEC and the Big Ten lead the way with 10 teams each, while the ACC has eight teams. The Big 12 has seven teams in DeCourcy's latest tournament projections. The Big East and the West Coast have three teams represented, while the Mountain West and A-10 have two teams. Selection Sunday is less than one month away, and these projections will inevitably evolve. For now, DeCourcy’s latest bracket forecast offers a clear snapshot of who’s rising, who’s falling and which programs are already building the résumés they’ll need when March arrives.