So much attention has been focused on the jumbled Wild Card races in both leagues, it’s easy to forget that some divisions remain up for grabs with roughly 60 games still to play.
All three American League divisions are tight, with seven teams either leading or sitting within three games of first place. The National League has only one truly competitive division, while the other two division-leaders are vying for the best record in the Majors.
Let’s take a look at the potential Trade Deadline approach for the six division leaders and the teams within seven games of the division lead trying to chase them down.
The Rays (59-42) have been an aggressive club at the Deadline in past years when they have an AL East title within their sights, so expect president of baseball operations Erik Neander to explore any and all options between now and Aug. 3. Adding a bat or two – catcher and second base are obvious spots – would go a long way, as the lineup thins out quickly after Yandy Díaz, Jonathan Aranda and Junior Caminero.
The back of the bullpen has been solid, but the Rays could use another arm or two to help bridge the gap to that group. Tampa Bay could also seek a starting pitcher to aid some of the workload issues the rotation will likely face during the final two months. The Rays have a strong farm system, so there are plenty of trade chips to use as they take aim at a first-round bye.
The Yankees (57-45, 2 1/2 games back) are in their standard position as buyers, looking to fortify the roster as they try to chase down the Rays. Catcher remains the biggest need in the lineup, though adding a right-handed hitter somewhere to help balance the lineup until Aaron Judge is ready to return should be a priority.
New York’s starting rotation is in good shape with the return of Max Fried and Carlos Rodón working his way back from an elbow injury. The bullpen, on the other hand, could use some reinforcements, so general manager Brian Cashman will scout the market in search of relief pitching in what has become something of an annual tradition.
Boston (52-48, 7 GB) has rocketed back into the race thanks to its 15-game winning streak, turning a lost season into one of hope. The Red Sox were pegged by most as a surefire seller only two weeks ago, but the long winning streak saved their season – and perhaps chief baseball officer Craig Breslow’s job – and put them in position to be buyers.
The primary need remains a right-handed bat, preferably at catcher, either middle-infield spot or at designated hitter. Adding a high-leverage reliever is also on Boston’s wish list, while a starting pitcher could also be in the cards to protect its trio of young starters (Payton Tolle, Connelly Early and Jake Bennett).
The White Sox (54-47) can no longer be seen as a fluke after 100 games, but now Chicago has the task of bolstering its roster for the stretch run. The rotation has been solid, but some of the starters could run into workload issues – Davis Martin and Sean Burke, in particular – given their lack of experience.
Adding a relief arm or two could also be a priority for general manager Chris Getz, as the White Sox bullpen has thrown more innings than any team in the AL this season. Kyle Teel’s ankle injury could also prompt Chicago to look for additional catching help.
Cleveland (54-49, 1 GB) remains in need of a right-handed bat – possibly one that could play both first base and corner outfield – as its .659 OPS against left-handed pitching ranks 28th in the Majors through 103 games, though the return of José Ramírez and eventual return of Angel Martínez will help balance the lineup.
Like nearly every other contender, the Guardians will likely look to reinforce a bullpen that ranks fourth in the AL with a 3.75 ERA. Cleveland’s rotation ranks seventh in the Majors with a 3.76 ERA, with its five-man group accounting for all but one start this season. There isn’t much rotation depth in the Minors, however, so adding another starter could be a good idea to protect the club from injury or workload issues.
If the White Sox are the league’s biggest surprise, the Twins (50-53, 5 GB) – who lost 92 games last year and held a stunning fire sale at the Trade Deadline – rank somewhere high on that list. Minnesota remains in the mix in both the AL Central and Wild Card races, and while players such as Joe Ryan, Byron Buxton and Ryan Jeffers have been floated as potential trade candidates throughout the year, the Twins are hoping to be buyers before the Deadline arrives.
Unlike many contenders that plan to use Minor Leaguers as trade chips, the Twins have plenty of Major League-ready talent at Triple-A waiting for their turn in Minnesota, giving general manager Jeremy Zoll some options. The bullpen remains the Twins’ biggest need and will likely be Zoll’s primary target, though adding a starting pitcher could also be a possibility.
The Tigers (48-54, 6 1/2 GB) won four of their first five games after the break, continuing their surge toward relevancy after digging a huge hole with their 22-38 start. Once 11 1/2 games out in the AL Central, the Tigers have faint hopes of winning the division – FanGraphs puts their odds at 15.3% – and their Wild Card chances are roughly the same (17.3%).
The rest of the league is watching Detroit closely. A bad week could turn the Tigers into the most intriguing team on the market, with highly coveted names such as Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize, Gleyber Torres, Kyle Finnegan and Kenley Jansen all likely to move if the Tigers sell. For now, if Detroit is looking to buy, a right-handed bat sits atop the team’s wish list.
Texas (51-51) is hoping the return of Corey Seager from the injured list serves as an August acquisition, but president of baseball operations Chris Young will likely try to make some moves to bolster the bullpen and the back end of the rotation as the Rangers jockey with the Mariners and Astros in the winnable AL West.
Like almost every other team in the AL, the next 10 days will help determine Young’s approach at the Deadline. The farm system has taken some hits during the past year following trades for MacKenzie Gore, Merrill Kelly and others, and while the Rangers still have two Top 100 prospects (No. 10 Sebastian Walcott and No. 62 Caden Scarborough), it feels unlikely that Young will move either of them unless an unexpectedly big deal presents itself.
Mariners (51-52, 1/2 GB) president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto loves nothing more than a good trade (or two or three or…) but the crowded postseason picture has few teams locked in as sellers, giving Seattle – and every other contender – fewer trade choices than normal. The Mariners have bounced around .500 for most of the year, never rising more than four games over and never dipping more than five games under.
The offense has struggled for much of the year, especially against lefties, against whom they own a league-low .635 OPS. The Mariners rank 29th in the Majors in runs scored, making the addition of a right-handed bat crucial to their postseason hopes.
Forget the talk about trading Jeremy Peña, Isaac Paredes or Christian Walker; the Astros (50-54, 2 GB) are planning to buy. If things go south in the next week, Houston could stand pat, but it would take a catastrophic stretch for the Astros to go into all-out sell mode.
The Astros have a number of needs, namely a left-handed outfield bat, rotation and bullpen help. The chances of landing all three seem unlikely, but general manager Dana Brown will take a shot with his club sitting within striking distance in the AL West despite its sub-.500 record. Adding an outfield bat is the priority, as the Astros’ .663 OPS from its outfielders ranks last in the Majors.
For the Braves (59-42), pitching is clearly the focus heading into the Deadline; president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos said recently that if a “playoff-caliber starter” became available, he would jump at that opportunity. Ditto for the bullpen, which could use another high-leverage arm for the stretch run.
Atlanta has help on the way in the form of Spencer Schwellenbach and AJ Smith-Shawver, who are both expected back from the IL at some point in the second half. For a Braves rotation that has a 5.42 ERA over its past 35 games, any help will be welcome. The Braves will also get a lineup boost by the return of Ronald Acuña Jr., who is on a rehab assignment.
The Phillies (56-47, 4 GB) have worked their way back from a 9-19 start to become a legitimate threat, not only in the NL East but as a true World Series contender. Adding a starter for the back-end of the rotation is among the Phillies’ needs, as Andrew Painter has struggled in his first year in the Majors, while another late-inning reliever to help get the ball to closer Jhoan Duran is also on the list.
The most glaring need, however, is a right-handed bat, something that seems to be an annual trend. The Phillies acquired Austin Hays and Harrison Bader at the past two Trade Deadlines, also bringing in Max Kepler and Adolis García in each of the past two offseasons. They now find themselves with a similar hole, one president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski will try to fill.
Milwaukee (64-38) has been battling the Dodgers for the Majors’ best record, but their grip on the NL Central has been fairly secure for more than a month, their lead standing at no fewer than five games since mid-June. That doesn’t mean the Brewers won’t look to fortify their roster before the Deadline as they look to reach their first World Series since 1982.
With Brandon Woodruff out for the year, Kyle Harrison on the injured list and Jacob Misiorowski already approaching his career-high in innings, the Brewers could look to add a starting pitcher for the stretch run. Milwaukee already added Lance McCullers Jr. in a deal with the Astros, but a more proven arm could be a target.
The Cubs (57-45, 7 GB) haven’t been closer than 5 1/2 games behind the Brewers since the end of May, and while they’re hanging around close enough to give Milwaukee something to think about – especially with seven head-to-head games remaining – Chicago has a firm grip on a Wild Card spot, holding a four-game lead over the teams chasing them.
So what will president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer do at the Deadline? Jameson Taillon is back from the injured list to help the rotation while Edward Cabrera could be back around the second week of August, but the Cubs could still seek more starting pitching. The bullpen, which could get Hoby Milner back soon and closer Daniel Palencia potentially in mid-August, is also an area that Hoyer can bolster with an addition or two.
Unlike a year ago, when the Dodgers (65-38) were fighting to hold off the Padres, Los Angeles’ lead in the NL West stands at a comfortable 11 1/2 games over Arizona. So while the Dodgers appear headed for October for the 14th consecutive year, the chances of them making additions with the goal of winning a third straight World Series title are high.
The Dodgers’ injured list looks like an All-Star team, with Will Smith, Edwin Díaz, Enrique Hernández, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow all working their way back. Díaz and Hernández should return soon, while Snell and Glasgow are targeting August. Add in the recent decision to shut down Shohei Ohtani from his pitching duties and it would make sense for Los Angeles to add some starting pitching at the Deadline. Whether that’s a big arm or simply a placeholder will depend on the club’s confidence in getting everyone healthy for the postseason.
