The big question on everyone’s mind around the baseball world is whether his 151st start — which would be scheduled for after next Monday’s 6 p.m. ET Trade Deadline — will also come in a Tigers uniform. The situation remains very much up in the air, with Detroit 3 1/2 games out of the final AL Wild Card spot (and with four teams ahead of them).
Will the Tigers hold on to Skubal for the stretch run and try to fight their way into October for the third straight year? Or will they deal the two-time defending AL Cy Young Award winner and pending free agent now, for a sizable return? And if the answer is the latter option, then who could land Skubal — and for what?
For help answering all of these questions, we turned to MLB.com senior national reporter Mark Feinsand and Tigers beat writer Jason Beck, as well as the beat writers for six potential Skubal suitors. Here are their responses.
What’s the latest on the likelihood of a Skubal trade?
Feinsand: The Tigers are in the trickiest spot of any team leading up to the Deadline. They’re still in the race, but for the long term, the best move for them is to become a seller. Skubal would bring back a haul, and they could add more talent by dealing away Gleyber Torres, Casey Mize, Kenley Jansen and Kyle Finnegan. The issue is the message it would send to the fan base (and the players still in the clubhouse) if they traded Skubal while still technically in the race. If Detroit loses a few games between now and Sunday, it would greatly increase the chances of a Skubal deal. Losing two of three to the Royals last weekend may have been enough of a sign to president of baseball operations Scott Harris that, even if his team squeaks into the postseason, they may not be good enough to play deep into October.
If Skubal is traded, what would the Tigers prioritize in a return package?
Beck: Tigers will look for young pitching in pretty much any deal. They have good young arms in Troy Melton, Jackson Jobe, Reese Olson and Ty Madden, but their farm system is thin on projectable starting pitchers. Harris noted last offseason that they have to improve at developing pitching, and they went against their recent drafting trends when they selected Coastal Carolina right-hander Cameron Flukey with their top Draft pick earlier this month. Their pitching department has shown an ability to turn good arms into strike throwers, so they can take on a project. Any controllable pitching close to the big leagues, if not already there, can help this roster get back to contention quickly.
While adding Skubal would of course benefit any contender, six of the more intriguing potential trade partners are the Braves, Brewers, Cubs, Dodgers, Rays and Yankees. How interested might each of them be, and who might they make available in return?
Braves beat writer Mark Bowman: Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has made shrewd buy-low deals that have landed him the likes of Chris Sale and 2021 World Series MVP Jorge Soler over the years. But he also landed both David Price and Troy Tulowitzki for Toronto before the 2015 Trade Deadline. So, he’s certainly shown an appetite and willingness to pursue the top dogs.
Pairing Skubal with Sale would significantly improve the Braves’ bid to win the World Series. Sale currently stands as Atlanta’s only playoff-caliber starter. Along with having a definite need for Skubal, the Braves also have both the financial resources and prospect capital necessary to acquire him.
Jurickson Profar’s suspension took $15 million off this year’s payroll. But the key might be the significant improvement of Atlanta’s farm system. Eric Hartman (MLB No. 74) has become one of the game’s most intriguing prospects. Cam Caminiti (MLB No. 41 and Braves No. 1) and Briggs McKenzie (Braves No. 4) are among the arms that could draw interest.
The Tigers are seeking a shortstop. Well, by sending Jim Jarvis to Atlanta for reliever Rafael Montero before last year’s Deadline, they helped the Braves gain a surplus of shortstops. Detroit likely isn’t interested in Ha-Seong Kim and his $20 million salary. But Jarvis, Tate Southisene (Braves No 3) or Alex Lodise (Braves No. 5) might be a good fit in a package.
Sale is 37 years old. Ronald Acuña Jr. can become a free agent after the 2028 season. Spencer Strider might not ever be a starter again, at least not to the level he once was. The clock is ticking for the Braves. Adding Skubal would be a big addition for a team that hasn’t won a playoff series since winning the 2021 World Series.
Brewers beat writer Adam McCalvy: Very interested. The Brewers are one of those teams that must stockpile prospects, especially position player prospects, in order to contend year after year. But they are open to being more aggressive at this year’s Deadline and have touched base with the Tigers on Skubal and with the Padres on Mason Miller. The tricky part is coming up with a return that meets Detroit’s asking price, which almost certainly would include a Major League-ready starter.
The Brewers have a number of arms in that category – Kyle Harrison, Brandon Sproat, Logan Henderson – but that would mean taking a chunk out of the rotation for this year and beyond in order to land a No. 1 like Skubal for two or three months. One can certainly make the argument it’s worth it, and the Brewers saw what can happen in 2008 when they went all-in for CC Sabathia. But there are plenty of other examples of the risk in that strategy.
Cubs beat writer Jordan Bastian: Multiple times over the past two months Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has pointed to the odds of clinching a first-round bye as an indicator of potential aggressiveness on the part of Chicago’s front office. When the North Siders got off to a strong start this season and led the division, the odds of trying to pull off a trade for Skubal seemed like a possibility. The Cubs’ slip to second place in May did a number on the chances of getting that first-round bye. So, while Chicago is seeking rotation help, it may be more realistic that the team tries to solve that need (plus trying to trade for a bullpen arm or two) in other ways. The Cubs might have the pieces to pull off a Skubal trade, but Hoyer would ideally like to avoid dealing from the very top of the farm system’s talent pool. So, it’s not impossible, but Chicago is probably a few notches down on the list of serious suitors.
MLB Pipeline senior writer Jim Callis (Dodgers): With the revelation after Tuesday’s Dodgers loss that Shohei Ohtani’s return to the mound is on hold due to both left knee inflammation and a right biceps issue, one has to wonder whether the Dodgers have greater incentive to make an offer for Skubal. Or perhaps it matter more to the Dodgers to add Skubal to their rotation or keep him out of a competitor’s. In either case, if they decide they want him, it will be hard to trump their offer. If Detroit desires a big league-ready starter as part of the package, Los Angeles could offer Justin Wrobleski or Emmett Sheehan. The Dodgers also lead all organizations with nine Top 100 Prospects, so they could trade some combination of them – outfielder Zyhir Hope and right-hander Christian Zazueta? – without feeling a pinch. They have depth in young talent with Major League experience (Alex Freeland) and in the Minors beyond the Top 100 (left-hander Zach Root, third baseman Chase Harlan, hopelessly blocked outfielder Ryan Ward) as well.
Rays beat reporter Adam Berry: The Rays are rarely associated with big-name targets like Skubal, but they are rarely in the position they’re currently occupying. They have the best record in the American League, and they have always operated with a more aggressive mindset when they have a chance to win the division and obtain a first-round bye in the postseason. (For examples, see their Nelson Cruz-for-Joe Ryan deal in 2021, their free-agent pursuit of Freddie Freeman heading into ‘22 or their willingness to trade Junior Caminero and Carson Williams for a few months of Ohtani in ‘23.) It’s hard to imagine them dealing away Top 100 Prospects Theo Gillen, Nathan Flewelling and Caden Bodine for a rental, even one as elite as Skubal. But they have an extremely deep and talented farm system that gives them the ability to do just about anything.
The Rays’ rotation is already a strength, but their success to this point has given Erik Neander’s front office the ability to think about making upgrades with October in mind. Skubal would not only enhance the Rays’ odds of winning the division. He would make their potential postseason rotation — which already could include Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, Nick Martinez and Griffin Jax — a force to be reckoned with. The Rays could intrigue the Tigers with a controllable big league starter (Ian Seymour?), the many upper-level prospects facing Rule 5 Draft eligibility this offseason (including Triple-A starters Brody Hopkins, Michael Forret and Ty Johnson), a former top prospect like shortstop Carson Williams or the boatload of high-upside prospects in the lower levels of their system.
Yankees beat writer Bryan Hoch: You’re going to hear buzz about the Yankees reaching out for Skubal, but I’m not convinced they have the chips to make that happen – and especially not if the front office is set against trading top prospect George Lombard Jr., as I’ve been told. Hypothetically, their best potential packages would include hard-throwing right-hander Carlos Lagrange (though he’s dealing with an injury right now) and a Major League-ready starting pitcher in Will Warren, plus infield prospect Dax Kilby. Jasson Domínguez or Spencer Jones could also be featured. I expect the Yankees to seek catching, bullpen help and a right-handed outfield bat at the Deadline.
OK, so which of those teams may be the biggest threat to land Skubal, if he in fact gets moved? And should anyone not on the list above be considered a serious contender?
Feinsand: The immediate reaction is always to say the Dodgers are the biggest threat, but in this case, I don’t think they are. I would put the Brewers and Rays ahead of the rest of the pack, as Milwaukee and Tampa Bay have deep farm systems and a real opportunity to make some noise in October with the addition of the two-time Cy Young winner. While teams like those won’t necessarily be in the mix for Skubal when he becomes a free agent, both the Brewers and Rays should be able to handle adding his salary for two months if they believe he can help them get to (and win) the World Series.
