Lin-Manuel Miranda’s “Hamilton” tells us, “In the eye of a hurricane, there is quiet.”
If that is to be believed, the storm is coming soon.
As teams around the Majors contemplate how to approach Monday’s Trade Deadline, Friday was an uneventful day on the trade front.
Not that there weren’t interesting happenings around the league, some of which should be viewed as precursors to moves to come.
The Mets scratched Freddy Peralta from Friday’s scheduled start, as manager Andy Green acknowledged that “talks have intensified” for the starter. Peralta, who is an obvious trade candidate as he heads for free agency, will almost certainly be moved by Monday, though sources said the Mets’ asking price for the right-hander remains high.
“What would the Mets end up doing with him [if he isn’t traded], make him a qualifying offer?” one National League executive said. “They’re looking for a Top 100 prospect for him, but the way he’s pitched this year, I’m not sure they’re going to get that.”
The Mets have a number of players expected to be traded by Monday, and the decision to scratch Peralta on Friday led some to speculate that a trade could take place as soon as Friday night or Saturday morning. President of baseball operations David Stearns has already traded Minter, but Peralta, Clay Holmes, Luke Weaver, Brooks Raley, Luis Robert Jr., Tyrone Taylor and Huascar Brazobàn could all be moved by Monday at 6 p.m. ET.
Peralta wasn’t the only potential trade candidate to be scratched from his start Friday, as the Tigers chose not to pitch Casey Mize — yet another indication that Detroit is preparing for a fire sale of sorts in the coming days. The Tigers took the same approach with Jack Flaherty two years ago, scratching him from his final start on the day before the Deadline, trading him to the Dodgers the next day.
“’Tis the season,” one American League executive said. “The trades will happen; we may just have to wait until Sunday or Monday for the real action to begin.”
The Tigers’ apparent decision to sell — Detroit entered Thursday at 51-58, sitting 4 1/2 games out of the final AL Wild Card spot — will have severe ramifications on the starting pitching market as the league waits to see where two-time defending AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal lands.
The Dodgers, Brewers, Rays, Braves and Cubs are widely viewed as the five most likely landing spots for Skubal, with the Yankees and Phillies among the other interested (but less likely) suitors. Until a Skubal trade happens — and multiple executives don’t believe it will until Sunday night or Monday morning — the rest of the starting pitching market could be in a holding pattern.
That is the likely scenario, one NL executive said, “at least for the upper-end guys.” That would mean Kevin Gausman, Mize, Clay Holmes, Robbie Ray and Peralta. Other starters with expiring contracts who could be moved include Brady Singer, Shane Bieber and Foster Griffin, though Griffin started for Washington on Friday as the Nationals contemplate whether to buy or sell.
“It feels like just one [starting pitcher] has to break through to get it rolling,” an AL executive said. “At some point you probably need to make sure you don’t come up empty-handed. It will be very interesting.”
The problem, it seems, is that until Skubal gets dealt, the teams that believe they have a legitimate chance of acquiring him are unlikely to deal for another arm such as Gausman, Mize, Holmes or Ray.
Controllable starting pitchers such as Hunter Greene, Reid Detmers, Jose Soriano, Emerson Hancock, Luis Castillo and Braxton Garrett are less likely to be held up by Skubal’s situation as the rentals, though none appeared close to being traded as of Friday.
That’s because, like many of the rentals available, the sellers are sticking to what one executive called “astronomical” asking prices.
“Sellers are holding high and buyers are balking,” the exec said. “That has to change at some point this weekend, doesn’t it?”
