It’s August, which means it’s the beginning of the stretch run. The Home Run Derby and All-Star Game have passed, the Trade Deadline is Monday, and playoff implication-laden baseball is taking center stage.
It might feel like if a team isn’t in playoff position right now, it could be time to be worried. But, is that true? For teams hoping to win the division, it’s definitely getting close to crunch time.
Let’s take a look at what it means to be in first place in a division entering August and what the playoff field may look like. Note that all stats below exclude the shortened 2020 season and instead look at full seasons for the impact and postseason implications.
What it means to be in first place (or not be there)
Since 1996 — the first full season with at least one Wild Card in each league — 125 of 174 eventual division champions held at least a share of their division lead entering Aug. 1. That’s 72 percent of division winners.
Take note, Rays, White Sox, Astros, Braves, Brewers and Dodgers fans — those are the teams that currently lead their divisions.
Last season, three of the six division leaders on Aug. 1 went on to win their divisions. In the American League, the Blue Jays won their division, while the Tigers, who led the AL Central entering August, made the postseason as a Wild Card and the Astros, who led the West, missed the playoffs. In the NL, Brewers and Dodgers both led entering August and won their divisions, while the Mets, who led the East, missed the playoffs.
Since 1996, 19 of the 29 World Series winners, excluding 2020, led their divisions entering August. The Dodgers did so last year and in ‘24.
If you were wondering, there have been four seasons in this span where all six division champions held at least a share of their division lead entering Aug. 1: 1996-97, ‘99 and 2019.
Of this year’s current division leaders entering August, three last did so as recently as last year: the Astros, Brewers and Dodgers. The Braves last led entering August in 2023 and both the Rays and White Sox in 2021.
The Brewers and Dodgers each won their divisions last season. The Astros last won theirs in 2024 and the Braves in 2023. The Rays and White Sox last won division titles in 2021.
October is quickly drawing closer, but there’s still plenty of baseball left to be played. Fans of the six division leaders can take some comfort in knowing that historically, close to three quarters of those teams have gone on to win their divisions. And for fans of teams that aren’t in playoff position, there’s still plenty of hope — while 72% of these teams go on to win their divisions, that means 28% do not, too. And the Trade Deadline is still to come.
Now, we all get the joy of watching and seeing what happens.
