Now that we’re on the other side of this year’s Trade Deadline, it’s time to check in on what the postseason races look like in the wake of contending clubs bolstering their rosters with what they hope are the missing pieces to a playoff run.
Here’s a breakdown of what the postseason field would look like if the season ended today.
(Here’s a refresher on playoff tiebreakers, which were used to determine this postseason outlook.)
Byes: Rays (1) and White Sox (2)
Entering 2026, if you said the Rays and White Sox would be in position for playoff byes as late as August, it would probably be a tough sell. But that’s where those clubs are with under two months to go in the regular season.
The Rays continue to quietly prove they’re one of the best teams in baseball. Coming off a sweep of the Rockies in Colorado, they own the league’s best record by a wide margin. If the season ended today, Tampa Bay would meet the winner of a Wild Card Series between the Red Sox and Yankees, meaning it would be an AL East showdown in the AL Division Series.
The White Sox, meanwhile, are even more of a surprise, considering they lost an MLB-record 121 games just two years ago. Manager Will Venable, in his second year at the helm, has his club proving with every passing day that this is no fluke. Thanks to a lineup led by sluggers Munetaka Murakami and Miguel Vargas — and most recently, Chase Meidroth — as well as a solid bullpen, the rise of the White Sox is one of this year’s best stories.
Wild Card Series matchups
If the postseason were to begin now, the AL would feature intradivision matchups in each Wild Card Series.
It would be an all-Texas affair between the Rangers and Astros in Houston. The Rangers have been hovering around .500 all season and hanging around in the AL West, while the Astros have gotten hot of late, winning 12 of 15 and becoming buyers at the Trade Deadline.
In the other AL Wild Card matchup, it would be a showdown between longtime archrivals with the Yankees hosting the Red Sox in the Bronx. Boston is the hottest team in baseball after a 15-game win streak earlier this season and a current eight-game win streak thanks to a dramatic win over the White Sox in 13 innings on Thursday.
The Red Sox have enjoyed an incredible turnaround, going from 14 games below .500 to 12 games over .500 in a matter of six weeks. The Yankees currently hold the top AL Wild Card position despite being without Aaron Judge for more than two months, but the Red Sox are nipping at their heels.
Just missed: Twins (half-game back), Guardians (half-game back), Orioles (1 game back), Tigers (1 game back)
The Guardians have fallen on hard times. On July 21, Cleveland had a share of the AL Central lead. Since then, it has dropped 11 of 14 games. And the Mariners have dropped 10 of their last 15 games after losing two of three at home against the Tigers.
Byes: Brewers (1) and Braves (2)
The Brewers won the most games of any team during the regular season last year, and guess what? So far in 2026, they’ve won the most games of any team this year. Pat Murphy’s squad just keeps on doing its thing. How, you ask? One word: Pitching.
Both the starting rotation and the bullpen have been fantastic for Milwaukee, whose 3.44 staff ERA is second only to the Yankees. That includes a quality start from Dustin May in his Brewers debut after he was acquired prior to the Trade Deadline.
The Braves have bounced back from an uncharacteristic fourth-place finish in 2025. Under new manager Walt Weiss, Atlanta has won eight straight and is perched comfortably atop the NL East with an 8 1/2-game lead over the Phillies. Is superstar outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr.’s bat heating up? After a slow start at the plate since coming off the injured list late last month, he belted a pair of homers — one of them with a little help from a pair of Marlins outfielders — in a win over Miami on Thursday.
Wild Card Series matchups
The Dodgers are winless in August, and as a result, they’ve dropped to the third seed and would take on the D-backs in the NL Wild Card Series if the season were to end today. It would be a rematch of the 2023 NLDS, when Arizona stunned the baseball world with a three-game sweep en route to a surprise World Series run.
The other NL Wild Card Series would be between the Phillies and Cubs at Wrigley Field. Powered by MVP candidate Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago currently has a firm grasp on the top Wild Card spot.
Just missed: Padres (1 game)
Dropped out since last month: Padres
The Padres made a pair of big moves ahead of the Trade Deadline to bolster the starting rotation as general manager A.J. Preller signals San Diego is going for it once again. With a win over the division rival D-backs in Phoenix on Thursday, the Padres split a four-game set with the Snakes and trail them by just one game for the third NL Wild Card spot.
