How USMNT avoided a tough group draw at the 2026 World Cup

The World Cup draw took place in Washington, DC and left many USMNT fans feeling good about the team’s chance to advance past the group stage for the first time since 2014.

The United States has been grouped with Australia and Paraguay so far (more on that in a bit) in what could only be described as a favorable set of teams for USA advancement chances.

The USMNT, currently ranked 14th in FIFA’s latest world rankings, was ultimately drawn to Group D. The group includes the following countries:

• Australia: The Aussies sit 26th in FIFA’s world rankings and are a very stout squad. However, it is a very winnable match for the USMNT. Lacking star power, the Aussies will have to grind away at opponents if they want to get out of the group stage. The USMNT should feel confident to get at least a point from the Aussies when they meet. In their last meeting, the USMNT took down Australia 2-1 back on October 14th, 2025.
• Paraguay: Another advantageous draw for the USMNT, as Paraguay was the next selection. Paraguay sits at 36th in FIFA’s world rankings and is yet another team that does not have any heavyweight stars. Much like Australia, Paraguay will not be an easy out, but a draw is what the USMNT should consider the near minimum when match up with Paraguay. A fun bit of trivia is that the USMNT and Paraguay were in the same group for the first World Cup.  In their last meeting, the USMNT took down Paraguay 2-1 on November 15, 2025.

The fourth team will be from the UEFA playoffs that will take place in spring 2026. That group of countries includes Türkiye (#25), Romania (#47), Slovakia (#45), and Kosovo (#80). Türkiye advancing would boost the degree of difficulty, but USA Soccer should be happy overall.

The USMNT’s recent history is not as bad as some paint it to be, but fans are demanding more. In 2022, the advancement to the Round of 16 was hailed as a success after missing the World Cup entirely in 2018. Prior to that, however, the results were middling. 2014 and 2010 resulted in losses in the Round of 16, while 2006 was yet another group stage exit.

You have to go all the way back to 2022 for a meaningful finish when the squad reached the quarterfinals. By the time the tourney kicks off, it will be 24 years of broken promises … will this be the tournament where things finally work out?