NFL playoff picture: What Lions win over Cowboys means in Week 14

The Detroit Lions beat the Dallas Cowboys in a 44-30 shootout on Thursday Night Football to open Week 14. The Lions took a 10-3 lead late in the first quarter on a Jahmyr Gibbs touchdown run, and that was the lowest scoring quarter of the game. Detroit took a 27-9 lead early in the third quarter, but the Cowboys fought back and had their chances. They cut the lead to as little as three points, but couldn’t get a stop when they needed it late.

Both teams entered this game on the outside looking in for the wild card race. The Lions improved to 8-5 with the win and sit a game back of the 49ers for the final wild card berth. They are 1.5 games back of the Bears for the NFC North lead. They entered the game with a 30% chance of making the playoffs, per The Athletic’s playoff simulator. The win improved those odds to 45%, whereas a loss would have dropped them to 12%.

Detroit likely would need help to reach the playoffs, although The Athletic suggests they have a 99% chance of making the playoffs if they win out and finish 12-5. They travel to face the Rams next week, and a win would certainly do wonders for their playoff chances. They’ll be keeping an eye on the Bears-Packers game on Sunday to boost their chances at the NFC North.

The loss did not eliminate the Cowboys from playoff contention, but they have a lot of work to do the rest of the way and will need considerable help. They entered the game with a 23% chance of making the playoffs and dropped to 8% with the loss.

Dallas hosts the Vikings and Chargers the next two weeks, and then closes the season on the road against the Commanders and Giants. If they win out, The Athletic projects them as having a 40% chance of making the playoffs. They would have a 10-6-1 record and would need the Eagles to lose three of their remaining five games to secure a playoff berth. Sitting in tenth place for the time-being means they need help from the 49ers, Lions and Panthers the rest of the way.

NFC playoff standings

1. Chicago Bears: 9-3
2. Los Angeles Rams: 9-3
3. Philadelphia Eagles: 8-4
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7-5
5. Seattle Seahawks: 9-3
6. Green Bay Packers: 8-3-1
7. San Francisco 49ers: 9-4
8. Detroit Lions: 8-5
9. Carolina Panthers: 7-6
10. Dallas Cowboys: 6-6-1
11. Atlanta Falcons: 4-8
12. Minnesota Vikings: 4-8

NFC North standings

1. Chicago Bears: 9-3
2. Green Bay Packers: 8-3-1
3. Detroit Lions: 8-5
4. Minnesota Vikings: 4-8

NFC East standings

1. Philadelphia Eagles: 8-4
2. Dallas Cowboys: 6-6-1
3. Washington Commanders: 3-9
4. New York Giants: 2-11