Notebook: Why Senators find themselves in playoff spot

OTTAWA — It’s American Thanksgiving and the Ottawa Senators are in a playoff spot.

Those words have not been uttered since 2016 — almost a full decade ago.

They demonstrate how far the Senators have come and how their ambitions have risen. Still, it’s not about just making the playoffs — it’s about what they do once there.

Despite falling apart in the third period against the St. Louis Blues on Friday in a game where Shane Pinto said “a little bit of immaturity” caused the loss, the Senators will still finish their previously cursed month of November above .500 for the first time since 2016.

Let’s dive into the great, good and ugly for the Senators to date:

Brady’s back

All eyes were on the return of Brady Tkachuk on Friday, and he was impressive in spite of the six-week layoff due to thumb surgery. What’s going to be fascinating is where head coach Travis Green slots him in the lineup. The presumption was that Tkachuk would flip to the left side of Tim Stutzle and Drake Batherson, a duo which has been hot all season. Instead, Green threw Tkachuk alongside Fabian Zetterlund and Dylan Cozens, which resulted in a goal and an assist for the returning star.  

Unless or until Steve Staios acquires another top-six winger, the decision for Green will be whether to overload the first line with Stutzle and Batherson or try for three solid lines with Tkachuk lifting Cozens and Zetterlund up like he did in his debut. (Green hasn’t touched the sizzling Michael Amadio-Shane Pinto-Claude Giroux third line for most of the season).

Regardless, Tkachuk’s return will improve the team in a multitude of ways: he sits top three in the league on a per-game basis in creating scoring chances, rebound chances and deflections, per Sportlogiq and as revealed on Friday’s broadcast. No other player in the league is in the top three in each of those categories.

Zetterlund’s offensive spark

Zetterlund started his Senators career with three goals in his first 45 games including regular season and playoffs. He now has three goals in his last four games.

The Swede’s output will likely end up somewhere in between his slump to begin the season and his recent heater. His scoring touch is necessary for the Senators to become an elite hockey team. Against St. Louis, he carved a Z with the puck behind the net, read that both the defenceman and goaltender were dragged in one direction and quickly rerouted for a creative, smart wraparound goal.

Zetterlund’s analytics are solid with a 52 per cent expected goals share, which ranks eighth on the team, and he’s been on the ice at five-on-five for the fifth-most high-danger chances of any Senators forward, ahead of Cozens and Batherson.

Zetterlund has been creating chances — now, he’s finally starting to bury them.

If that can continue, it helps the Senators both on the ice and in terms of asset management if they want to use the Swede to acquire a better sniper via trade.

Who rounds out the Senators’ top six?

The core of the Senators’ top six includes Tkachuk, Stutzle, Batherson, Cozens and Zetterlund, for now. But who’s the sixth? It’s been musical chairs for the final spot to date, with the likes of David Perron, Lars Eller, Ridly Greig and Nick Cousins rotating through.

Those four have combined for 11 goals.

Green changes his lines so frequently because he doesn’t have that final clear-cut top-six forward.

It’s up to Staios to acquire that player by the trade deadline.

Fourth-line struggles

The Senators’ fourth line has struggled all season. Eller has been useful, but not as effective as Staios would have hoped, leading Green to playing his fourth line only between five-to-seven minutes per game of late. The trio of Eller, Cousins and Hayden Hodgson holds an awful 11 per cent expected goals share while being outshot 8-1.

“We got a little tired. I’ve got to do a little better job of getting our fourth line out, getting them a few more minutes to save some energy later in games,” Green said after the Senators’ Wednesday win in Vegas.

Tkachuk’s return will help create depth, but it’s not sustainable in an 82-game season to play the fourth line so little. Either the Senators need better play from their internal fourth-line options, perhaps by giving youngster Stephen Halliday another shot, or Staios needs to add depth by the trade deadline.

Jensen’s down year continues

When Thomas Chabot returns — and we still don’t know when that will be — Nick Jensen needs to sit. We will repeat ourselves: it’s not Jensen’s fault that he’s struggling at 35 after major hip surgery. Nevertheless, his turnover against the Blues behind his own net led directly to the opening goal, and previously against the Kings on Monday, he lost a man behind him leading to a tap-in for another opening goal.

Jensen has been on the ice for 22 goals against this season at five-on-five — the most of any Senator. His current partner, Nikolas Matinpalo, has been steady and created two goals with primary assists against the Kings and Blues. Maybe a little rest will allow Jensen to return to his sterling play from last season.

Improved goaltending

In November, the Senators ranks 15th in save percentage at .900 — a major improvement from the start of the season. Linus Ullmark has played closer to his Vezina form with a save percentage above .895 in six straight games, including standing on his head to secure a win against the Golden Knights.

Meanwhile, since Leevi Merilainen’s awful seven-goal first start, he has a .902 save percentage. If you’re wonder how the Senators have turned around their season, look no further than the goaltenders.

GPA line

A Sens fan dubbed Giroux-Amadio-Pinto the “GPA line,” a nod to the first initial of each player’s last name and their collective hockey IQ. The line continues to boast the best expected goals percentage in the NHL thanks to its ability to neutralize opposition plays and create the other way.

In a nifty goal against the Blues, Pinto entered the zone and found Amadio with a smart turnaround that eventually landed back on his stick. Recently, Pinto has been the benefactor of the trio’s strong play, scoring in back-to-back games. He just landed a massive $30 million contract worth $7.5 million per year. Over one quarter of the season, he’s on pace for 41 goals, and one wonders how much higher that AAV could have gone in free agency given the hot start. He’s also in contention to make the U.S. Olympic team. 

Thanksgiving benchmark

Last season, the Senators’ record through American Thanksgiving was 8-11-1. Since Dec. 1 last season, the Senators have a 35-18-6 record; their .644 points percentage ties them with the Lightning for 13th in the NHL. 

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