Olympic men’s hockey semifinals: Final 4 ranked by gold medal chances

Then there were four. The Olympic gold medal in men’s ice hockey will be settled on Sunday in the final event of the Milan games. It’s been a phenomenal tournament that not only showcased the depth of talent in world hockey, but felt more special than it has in years with the addition of NHL talent to the tournament. It allowed the best hockey players in the world to be on display, and potentially even open the door for lesser-known non-NHL players to get a second look from the sport’s biggest league.

As predicted prior to Milan we have Canada and USA in the mix for the gold medal, but this is far from a foregone conclusion. Now we take a look at all four of the remaining teams, what make them tick, and who could be hearing their anthem on the celebratory podium.

4. Finland

This is the most mercurial team remaining in the field. When Finland are on their game they have qualities nobody (not even Canada) can match. They play a supremely pretty, finesse style of hockey that puts a priority on speed and passing over everything else — but that’s also their biggest weakness.

Finland lacks a distinct edge that can carry them through in a grinding, physical game, and a big factor in this has been a lack of aggression or assertion by Mikko Rantanen. He’s playing very good hockey, registering one goal and four assists — but there just hasn’t been the the kind of superstar takeover many would have expected from him in these games, currently sitting at a +1 on the ice. The saving grace is that Finland is deep with four players in the Top 25 in points these games.

If Finland plays to their potential, they are a silver medal caliber team with a chance to even sneak a gold. We still haven’t seen them hit that level yet, and while they have been clicking at times — there just isn’t enough consistency to have supreme faith in them. One shift they’ll look like the best team in the tournament, the next it’s hard to see how they made it this far.

3. Slovakia

Slovakia secured their first medal in team history at the 2022 Winter Olympics, as they returned from Beijing with a bronze medal to their credit.

Another bronze is now in sight after their dominant performance against Germany, but this group could think about setting their sights higher. Pavol Regenda opened the scoring with a goal in the first period, and then Slovakia added three more in the second period to take a 4-1 lead to the second intermission.

Regenda’s second goal of the game staked Slovakia to a 5-1 lead, and they salted away their quarterfinals win over the final 19 minutes of the game.

Heading into knockout play, we wondered if Slovakia would find their edge after an inconsistent run during the preliminaries. They certainly found that edge against Germany, and the team we saw on Tuesday could certainly make some noise here in the semifinals, if not beyond.

2. USA

The United States hasn’t been perfect this tournament, but they have a quality that none of the remaining teams do: An abundance of toughness. These games we saw Canada opt for a more puck-handling, skills-based team with Tom Wilson and Brad Marchand being the only real bruisers on their roster. Meanwhile USA went for a lot more blue collar, two-way, forechecking forwards that don’t have the same offensive upside.

This put Team USA at more of a risk in the opening stages of the tournament, but surviving against another physical team in Sweden puts them in a great spot for a stylistic clash in the semi-finals and beyond. Auston Matthews is the linchpin in the plan, with his high-volume shooting requiring teams to account for him, opening up chances for other scorers to take advantage of the vacuum he creates on the ice.

The other element where Team USA thrives is defense, particularly the ability to ensure teams don’t get clean looks at goal. The defensive unit for the team thrives at playing passing lanes and stopping opportunities, which really shined against Sweden in the quarter finals, who struggled to make the additional pass they wanted to in order to get good looks at goal. Assuming you’re able to get past that wall there’s still Connor Hellebuyck in goal, who might not be in Vezina form this season — but he’s still the best goalie left in the tournament.

There’s a lot to like about Team USA as a gold medal team. They match up well against both the finesse lines of Canada and Finland — either of whom they’d see in the final.

1. Canada

The team that limped through the first period against Czechia could struggle to advance to the gold medal game.

The team that showed up in the second period against Czechia could win gold going away.

After falling down 2-1 against Czechia, Canada poured it on over the next 20 minutes, tying the game on a goal from Nathan MacKinnon, his third goal of the Olympics. But that goal came after a tremendous amount of pressure from the Canadians, who seemed to kick into an extra gear with Connor McDavid — whose assist on MacKinnon’s goal was his second of the game — leading the way.

Then, after Canada went down again midway through the third period, they turned it on again, putting pressure on Czechia and getting a deflection goal from Nick Suzuki to even the game at 3-3. Canada then won the game early in overtime, advancing to the semifinals.

We’ll see which version of Team Canada shows up in their next game: The team that slept through the first period, or the team that turned things up a notch when they needed it versus Czechia. But if it is the latter, that is a team that can absolutely leave Italy with a gold.