Patriots-Broncos playoff history shows why AFC Championship stakes are so high

On Sunday, the New England Patriots will meet the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship Game, marking the sixth time these two franchises have met in the playoffs.

The Patriots have become one of the league’s legendary franchises, have won six Super Bowls (appearing in 11 total) and posting a 39-22 overall playoff record. As for the Broncos, Denver has secured three Lombardis (in eight Super Bowl appearances) and they have an all-time playoff record of 24-20.

But when it comes to the playoff history between these two teams, it is even more one-sided.

In Denver’s favor.

While the Broncos may be starting backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham in this game thanks to Bo Nix’s season-ending ankle fracture, Denver fans can look no further than history for some solace heading into Sunday.

Let’s look back at each of the previous meetings.

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
Divisional Round: January 4, 1987

The first playoff meeting between these two teams dates back to the 1986 NFL season. New England entered the game with an 11-5 record, winners of the AFC East.

Denver had a matching 11-5 record as winners of the AFC West.

It was a rematch of a Week 4 meeting between those two teams, also played in the Mile High City. As with that Week 4 meeting — won by the Broncos by a final score of 27-20 — Denver took the Divisional Round game as well. John Elway connected with Vance Johnson from 48 yards out late in the third quarter to stake the Broncos to a 20-17 lead, and Denver tacked on two more points when Rulon Jones sacked Tony Eason for a safety on New England’s final drive.

Final score: Denver 22, New England 20.

While the Patriots went home to begin their offseason, Denver moved onto the AFC Championship Game against the Cleveland Browns.

That game would also end in dramatic fashion, thanks to “The Drive.” Denver took over on their own 2-yard line trailing by seven, but Elway marched the Broncos nearly the length of the field to tie the game with 37 seconds remaining.

Denver advanced to the Super Bowl on a 33-yard field goal by Rich Karlis in overtime. While they lost Super Bowl XXI to the New York Giants, the legend of Elway was growing …

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
Divisional Round: January 14, 2006

You may know this game as the “Champ Bailey Game.”

I know it as the night I broke a cell phone in pure, unbridled rage.

On a Saturday night in Denver, Mike Shanahan and the Broncos welcomed Bill Belichick and the Patriots. New England, after winning the Super Bowl the previous year over the Philadelphia Eagles, were looking to reach the big game for a third-consecutive season. But after finishing with a 10-6 record and as the No. 4 seed in the AFC, they moved on to the Divisional Round after dispatching the Jacksonville Jaguars on Wild Card weekend.

Where they met the No. 2 seed Denver.

A 32-yard field goal from Adam Vinatieri midway through the third quarter cut Denver’s lead to 10-6, and after the Patriots forced the Broncos’ subsequent drive to stall, Brady had New England back on the move. A 33-yard pass to Troy Brown got New England into Denver territory, and a few plays later Brady connected with Deion Branch for a 5-yard gain to give the Patriots a 2nd-and-goal situation at Denver’s 5-yard line.

A second down incompletion led to third down, and this:

That is the moment my cell phone — an old-school one with an antenna and everything — met the couch at a rather high rate of speed.

I remain convinced to this day the correct ruling was a touchback. But the play was ruled out-of-bounds at the 1-yard line, and Denver scored on the next play to take a 17-6 lead, and they would not look back.

Final score: Denver 27, New England 13

Denver would lose to the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC Championship Game, and the Steelers would go on to win Super Bowl XL over the Seattle Seahawks.

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots
Divisional Round: January 14, 2012

The next time these two AFC titans renewed their rivalry in the playoffs was at the end of the 2011 NFL season. New England finished the regular season with a 13-3 record, winners of the AFC East, and as the No. 1 seed in the conference. Brady still led the way for the Patriots.

The 8-8 Broncos countered with Tim Tebow.

But Denver had won a thrilling game over the Pittsburgh Steelers in overtime during Wild Card Weekend, stunning the visitors when Tebow connected with Demaryius Thomas on an 80-yard touchdown on the first play of overtime.

The Divisional Round game was much less exciting, especially if you were a Broncos fan.

After the Patriots jumped out to a 14-0 lead, a 5-yard burst from Willis McGahee cut New England’s lead to 14-7. But the Patriots scored the next 21 points to take a 35-7 lead into the locker room, and Brady’s sixth touchdown pass of the night staked New England to a 42-7 lead early in the fourth quarter.

Final score: New England 45, Denver 10.

However, the Patriots would see their dreams of a Super Bowl title dashed once more by Eli Manning, as they lost to the New York Giants in Super Bowl XLVI.

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
AFC Championship: January 19, 2014

For years, the rivalry between Brady and Peyton Manning played out in games between the Patriots and the Indianapolis Colts.

But when Manning joined the Broncos as a free agent ahead of the 2012 season, that rivalry took on a new form.

Despite some thrilling regular-season games between the two teams, they did not meet in the playoffs until after the 2013 regular season. The Broncos won the AFC West with a 13-3 record, secured the No. 1 seed, and booked their spot in the title game with a 24-17 win over the Chargers. As for the Patriots, their 12-4 record slotted them in as the No. 2 seed, and they bullied the Colts 43-22 in the Divisional Round to set up the AFC Championship Game.

Billed as “Manning-Brady XV” — it was the 15th meeting between the two quarterbacks and the fourth in the playoffs — the Broncos built a 20-3 lead heading into the final quarter. Denver used two long touchdown drives of over seven minutes each (the two longest drives of Denver’s season) to build that lead, turning Brady into a spectator.

While the Patriots scored 13 points in the fourth quarter, it was not enough.

Final score: Denver 26, New England 13.

The Broncos advanced to Super Bowl XLVIII, to be played outdoors at MetLife Stadium against the Seattle Seahawks. The game was the first outdoor, cold-weather Super Bowl.

Seattle won that game in a blowout, 43-8 over the Broncos.

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
AFC Championship: January 24, 2016

The 2015 NFL season began with the Patriots as defending Super Bowl Champions, but Brady sidelined for four games as a result of the “Deflategate” investigation.

Still, New England finished with a 12-4 record, tied with the Broncos atop the AFC. But an overtime win for the Broncos in Week 12 over New England was enough to clinch the No. 1 spot, and guarantee that any rematch would take place in Denver.

When the Patriots knocked off the Chiefs in the Divisional Round, and the Broncos knocked off the Steelers, another Manning-Brady game was set.

Out of the many between the two over the years, this might have been the most thrilling.

Instead of the two legendary quarterbacks carving up the opposition, the two defenses largely led the way. New England sacked Manning three times in the game, but it was Denver’s defense that battered Brady throughout the afternoon. The Broncos sacked Brady four time, knocked him down 20 times, intercepted him twice, and stopped the Patriots on fourth down twice in the fourth quarter. That helped Denver, thanks to two Manning touchdown passes, build a 17-9 halftime lead.

Still, when Brady connected with Rob Gronkowski on a 4-yard touchdown pass with just 12 seconds remaining, the Patriots trailed by just two points.

New England’s subsequent two-point conversion try failed, as Brady’s pass intended for Julian Edelman was intercepted by Bradley Roby. The Patriots tried an onside kick to keep their hopes alive, but Shiloh Keo’s recovery ended any chance of a miracle.

Final score: Denver 20, New England 18.

The Broncos would go on to win Super Bowl 50 over the Carolina Panthers.

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
AFC Championship: January 25, 2026

As for what happens Sunday?

That we do not know.

But we know the names have changed. We know that Jarrett Stidham will be under center for the Broncos. We know that once again two storied organizations will meet in the AFC Championship Game.

And we also know that, when it comes to the playoffs, the Broncos have the advantage, 4-1 over New England all-time.

Will that trend hold this weekend?