Senators Mailbag: Could Carter Yakemchuk be traded?

OTTAWA — Instead of trying to just survive in November, the Senators thrived last month.

No captain, no problem. A 15-day, seven-game road trip could have left the Senators spinning sideways, but instead saw them rose in the standings. Yet, they’ve struggled with captain Brady Tkachuk in the lineup, which is why they’re in the mushy middle of the Eastern Conference.

There is still plenty of runway left in the season, and that’s why we thought it was time to hear from you, the readers, for a mailbag.

Thanks again to everyone who asked questions and thanks to all our readers:

Let’s start off hot. Carter Yakemchuk is by far Ottawa’s most valuable prospect and trade asset. He leads the AHL in points by a rookie defenceman with 16 points in 23 games. However, his defence still has flaws to be worked out in Belleville, Ont.

For fans worried about Yakemchuk’s recent absence, he’s dealing with a minor injury and that’s why he didn’t play. GM Steve Staios intimated recently that Yakemchuk could play in the NHL this season, and Ottawa does have a hole on the right side with Nick Jensen’s regression.

But if the Senators can get an elite forward or a top-four, right-shot defenceman with seasons under team control, they should pull the trigger. Ottawa’s window to win is the next three years with Tkachuk under contract. But if you trade Yakemchuk, a great player must return.

Keeping on the trade discourse, fun times in Ottawa, eh! Not about selling but finally about buying at a deadline. Been too long. 

I think Ridly Greig certainly could be a trade piece but I wouldn’t put him in a similar tier to Alex Tuch or Logan Stankoven. He’s a really solid NHLer but he looks to top out as a middle-six player. Because of the Senators’ lack of assets and plethora of centres, he’s expendable to a point. The one thing I’d worry about trading him is he’s such a perfect pest for the playoffs — Brad Marchand-light. I’d only trade him for a star. As for Jackson Parsons, the Ottawa native looks promising in his ascension to Belleville in his first year of pro hockey, the goaltender could be a real prospect in due time.

Simple answer. The Senators went 11-5-4 without Brady Tkachuk. The goal internally was just to stay around .500, but perplexingly they are 2-5-0 with the captain.

I will take the over by a hair, albeit that’s presuming Pinto is relatively healthy after leaving Thursday’s night’s game with a lower-body injury. Pinto is on a 36-goal pace right now and his shooting percentage is high at 18 per cent; but last season it was 16.5 per cent and he finished with 21 goals. Pinto is always on the ice when teams pull goalies so I think he’ll score a few empty-netters, which he hasn’t done yet this season. Via the eye test, Pinto is always getting great chances. The good news is that his offence doesn’t feel fluky, and his new $30-million contract might already be a bargain.

Giroux-Pinto-Amadio has been Ottawa’s best line this season. Analytically they are the second-best line in the NHL in terms of expected goals (minimum 100 minutes played). We recently wrote about what makes the line so effective.

They can play stout defensively, with all three having immense hockey IQ, and have the talent to score. They will be a nightmare for opponents in the playoffs.

I don’t think there is an urgency to sign Leevi Merilainen because of an offer-sheet possibility. Ottawa would likely match and there are so many goalie options available for teams in unrestricted free agency. The goalie carousel is real. However, outside of Merilainen’s awful first game of the season, he has a .900 save percentage and 2.33 goals saved above expected, which is much better than Linus Ullmark. If Merilainen continues to play well, we may have a goalie controversy. But more importantly, it might be smart for the Senators to sign Merilainen on a longer-term deal with an average annual value of $2-3 million to get security and a cheap-ish backup.

At this point, I see it as unlikely unless Ottawa gets decimated by injuries in the top six. Ottawa had no natural left-wingers on the team when Tkachuk got hurt and Arthur Kaliyev got only two games with Ottawa. All he can do is continue to score in Belleville and maybe get an opportunity. Kaliyev isn’t built to play in a depth role. He’s a natural scorer, not a checker or defensive player.

Focusing on Stephen Halliday, he’s played well despite Travis Green clearly not trusting him, playing him an average of only 6:29. Halliday has great hands, great vision and is a big body. He could skate better and be better defensively, but he’s an NHLer.

I’d take Halliday over Kaliyev because of playmaking, and versatility. I do think it’s worth seeing how he plays in the NHL before the deadline, but there is no clear spot for him with Ottawa healthy.

There is a natural psychological letdown when you are scratching and clawing to survive without a key player. Then when he returns, that tenacity can briefly subside. It’s also natural that players are in a rhythm, which Tkachuk’s massive presence disrupts.

Ullmark is worst in the NHL in cumulative goals saved above expected at -9.8 and is third last in goals saved above expected per game. However, since the start of November he’s been pretty good with an .888 save percentage and -.050 goals saved above expected: not too bad with save percentages around the league dropping more quickly than a goalie into the butterfly. I am concerned, however, because his recoveries are incredibly slow: look at the Jack Eichel goal in Vegas and even how slow he was to recover in Montreal right before the Canadiens scored the opening goal. He’s getting older and seems to be getting slower. I am very concerned about how he will fare in the playoffs.

At the start of the season, I picked the Senators to win the Atlantic and I will stick to that bold prediction.

The Senators are missing another star forward and a second-pair right shot defenceman. Neither is easy to come by. My gut says they are aiming for the forward. Unfortunately, because of the parity in the league, few teams are out of it and thus fewer players are available.

Tuch and Jared McCann would be great if the contract extensions could be hammered out. I like Tuch more for his defensive prowess, but both are elite scoring wingers. Kiefer Sherwood could be a cheaper option: he’d be an absolute pest in the playoffs too. The one player I’d like on the back end would be Calgary’s MacKenzie Weegar if he ever became available.

If the Senators make a move, I believe they are big-game hunting rather than nibbling on the edges, especially considering they have few prospects and don’t have their first-round pick this season. Why trade draft or prospect capital for a middling player? That also means a player on their roster would likely be moved, and because of their depth at forward the four names that I could see the Senators parting with are David Perron, Fabian Zetterlund, Greig and Dylan Cozens (in a big move).  Zettterlund, mind you, is feeling so good on a recent hot streak that at practice Thursday, he was practising his goal celebration. A position player, top prospect and 2027 first-round pick likely will all be on the table for Staios to acquire talent.  

I wouldn’t jump to that conclusion on Green. He’s done a great job turning this team around in less than 18 months. I do quibble often with some of his decisions — Jordan Spence’s role to begin the season and keeping Jensen in the top four too long — but the team plays the right way, overall. The special teams are the only real worry, especially the penalty kill.  If the Senators can fix the penalty kill, I’d give Green an A grade this season.

The Senators’ power play has struggled for a confluence of reasons, but scored twice against the Rangers on Thursday. However, Ottawa is fifth-last in high-danger chances created on the power play since the start of November.

Their zone entries have been abysmal, and they have struggled to maintain offensive-zone possession. They’ve also chased shot quality over simply the directness of throwing more pucks on goal. What I’d like to see Green do is keep PP1 on longer than one minute. The longer Tim Stutzle, Tkachuk and Jake Sanderson are on the power play, the better it will be for the team. 

It’s likely they will be fined for not wearing helmets. And I wonder how much the players care. 

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