Super Bowl 2026: 3 ways Patriots can beat Seahawks

From the moment the New England Patriots booked their spot in Super Bowl LX, one text message has appeared on my phone more than any other.

“Can they win?”

The question has come from family members, old classmates, former teammates, and all corners of my contacts with ties to the New England area.

It is a question that I have struggled to answer.

The task seems arduous. New England’s play of late, particularly on the offensive side of the football, has not been inspiring. The Seattle Seahawks seem like a team of destiny, thanks to an incredible defense, and a magical run from Sam Darnold. New England opened as underdogs for a reason, and that number has only gotten bigger.

But as the saying goes, “on any given Sunday …”

Yes, the Patriots can win this game.

Here are three reasons why.

Send in the ghosts

For years, “ghosts” has been a word associated with Seattle quarterback Sam Darnold.

It stems back to a game between the Patriots and the New York Jets during the 2019 season, when Darnold was still with the team that drafted him. On a Monday night, New England pressured Darnold throughout the contest, forcing four interceptions and an NFL passer rating of just 3.6.

At one point on the sideline, microphones caught Darnold lamenting that he was seeing ghosts on the field.

The phrase has haunted him, for a lack of a better word, since that night. But if the Patriots are to pull off the upset in Super Bowl LX, they need to bring the ghosts back.

Darnold is coming off perhaps the game of his career, a three-touchdown effort against the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Championship game. But if there is a question mark about his game, even after what he has done the past two seasons in Minnesota and Seattle, it is how he plays in the face of pressure.

According to charting data from Pro Football Focus, Darnold threw eight interceptions this season when pressured in the pocket, tied for the most in the league along with Geno Smith. When you factor in the playoffs, C.J. Stroud joins those two quarterbacks with eight interceptions, with two of those coming against these very same Patriots in the Divisional Round.

All eight of Darnold’s interceptions this year when pressured, according to Pro Football Focus, have come when opposing defenses have blitzed him.

That sets up a unique opportunity for New England in Super Bowl LX. Since their bye week, the Patriots have leaned into pressure schemes to generate havoc on opposing quarterbacks, and that trend has accelerated in the playoffs. New England finished the regular season with a blitz rate of 27.6%.

Over their three playoff games, that number has skyrocketed to 40.6%.

If New England can get pressure on Darnold with the blitz, and have their players in the secondary hold up in coverage when they send extra rushers after the Seattle passer, they can perhaps force some interceptions.

Or at least have Darnold seeing some ghosts again.

Hit the big plays

During the regular season, Drake Maye was one of the most efficient — and explosive — passers in the NFL. According to charting data from Pro Football Focus Maye posted an Adjusted Completion Percentage (ACP) of 56.5% on throws of 20 air yards or more, the fourth-best mark in the NFL. He threw for nine touchdown passes, against one interception, on those throws. And if you look at “Quarterback Efficiency” during the regular season, you’ll see how efficient Maye was this year:

The playoffs, however, have been a much different story:

Instead of nearly breaking the chart, as he did in the regular season Maye is down in the bottom-left quadrant, below average in both Completion Percentage Above Expected (CPOE) and Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play). By marked contrast, it is Darnold who has almost broken the chart for playoff quarterbacks.

In addition, Maye’s numbers in the downfield passing game have taken a hit. Over New England’s three playoff games the second-year passer has an ACP of just 33.3% on his throws over 20 air yards, ranking him ninth out of the 13 qualifying postseason QBs. He has also thrown just two touchdowns, against one interception, on these throws.

Some of this might be by design. New England has gone up against three stout defenses so far — the Chargers, the Texans, and the Broncos — and that will continue into Super Bowl LX. Factor in the difficult weather the Patriots faced in the AFC Championship game, and an emphasis on ball security, and you have more of a horizontal passing attack.

But on Super Bowl Sunday, New England needs to try and tap into what got them to the playoffs in the first place: A passing game, and a quarterback, that can flip the field in the blink of an eye.

Remember where you came from

When the Seahawks booked their spot in Super Bowl LX, they were immediately installed as the favorites for the big game. Seattle opened as 3.5-point favorites and the line has continued to shift in their direction since then.

Absent a reversal, that would break a streak of eight consecutive Super Bowls where New England was the betting favorite. The last time the Patriots were underdogs in the big game? That came at the end of the 2001 NFL regular season, where New England entered Super Bowl XXXVI as 14-point underdogs to the St. Louis Rams.

As you know, New England won that game, battering the “Greatest Show on Turf” and getting a field goal from Adam Vinatieri on the final play of the game to win 20-17.

A key play early in that contest was Pick-Six from Hall of Fame cornerback Ty Law, a moment that Bill Belichick stressed the night before Super Bowl XXXVI. Speaking to his team before that game, Belichick showed the Patriots video of how forcing early turnovers could make the Rams vulnerable. “If you can get through those first two minutes,” Belichick told his team, “you’ve got a fighting chance.”

In the room for that speech? A linebacker that notched four tackles against the Rams — including one for a loss — and who’s pressure of Kurt Warner helped force that very Pick-Six from Law.

Mike Vrabel:

Vrabel, of course, is now New England’s head coach, and he can become the first person in NFL history to win a Super Bowl as both a player and a head coach of the same team. But he was an ingredient for the recipe that delivered New England’s first title, coming the last time they faced what seemed to be insurmountable odds in a Super Bowl.

If there is anyone who can help New England remember just who they are as a franchise, and what they have done before in games like this one, it is Vrabel.

Pressure Darnold, hit big plays, and make the most of their opportunities. It worked for the Patriots back in Super Bowl XXXVI. It could be their best shot here in Super Bowl LX.