The Big Picture: North Dakota State Is Poised to Shake Up the FBS in Year 1

My phone rang at 9:15 a.m. CT. The number was unfamiliar, but I had a hunch and answered. "Hello?" "RJ, this is Tim Polasek," he said. "How are you?" This is the head coach of North Dakota State, the steward of the most dominant program in modern FCS history. And yet, there were no airs, no assumption that I should already understand what his name, or his program, has meant to college football over the last 15 years. He did not present himself as the latest in a line of NDSU coaching heavyweights — from Craig Bohl to Chris Klieman — who helped deliver seven national titles in 15 years. He didn’t mention the Bison’s 9–5 record against FBS opponents in that span, or the six wins over Power 4 programs. But I knew. And chances are, you do, too. It’s why the program’s decision to leave the Missouri Valley Conference and join the Mountain West on July 1, 2026, as a football-only member, drew so much attention earlier this week. North Dakota State’s pedigree, combined with the looming departures of Boise State and Fresno State — winners of four of the last Mountain West titles — makes the Bison an immediate favorite to win the conference. But my question for Polasek wasn't about competing for a conference title. It was about attempting to make history. "Do you think your team is capable of competing for the College Football Playoff?" I asked. "I think I like our team," Polasek told me. "We’re going to have some learning and growing to do about our opponents, but I really like our process, the year-round work that we do and how we practice. Those things position us to be very competitive in every game. And if you happen to knock them down one at a time, there's no reason NDSU can't be in the conversation for the College Football Playoff." The Bison have had time to consider the gravity of that task. The decision to move to the FBS has been at least four years in the making. While serving as Wyoming’s offensive coordinator, Polasek said his predecessor at North Dakota State — now Fresno State coach Matt Entz — spoke with him about the possibility as far back as 2021. But it wasn’t until nearly a month ago that the move felt not only possible, but likely. "I just had my focus on the process of things that needed to get done as an FCS program, but then there was obviously a shift and an excitement level that this thing could become a reality," Polasek told me. North Dakota State will pay the Mountain West $12.5 million to enter the conference and the NCAA $5 million to reclassify from FCS to FBS. The next hurdle for Polasek and the program is convincing the NCAA to waive the mandatory two-year probationary period for FCS teams moving to FBS. If the NCAA denies the waiver, the Bison would be ineligible to compete for the Mountain West championship or the College Football Playoff until 2028. On top of that, the program will likely need to increase its operating budget for football. Given that the school recently opened a $54 million indoor stadium, funded entirely by private donors, Polasek does not anticipate football finances being a concern. "I haven’t given it much thought at all," he told me, "but I believe that we would not be making this transition if we didn’t think we could position ourselves to be competitive from a budget standpoint and facility standpoint most certainly." North Dakota's recent success, combined with past results of programs making the transition from FCS to FBS, indicate the Bison will hit the ground running: Four of the last six teams to make the same move have won six or more games in their first season of FBS competition. Curt Cignetti’s 2023 James Madison team finished 10-0 and, two years later, reached the CFP. Now, the 137th team in the Football Bowl Subdivision hopes to persuade the NCAA to give it a chance to reach the CFP in Year 1. When Polasek and I finished talking, I felt then what I feel now: there has never been a program better prepared to do just that. In the Big Picture, we contextualize key moves and moments so you can instantly understand why they matter.