World Cup quarterfinal best bets: England vs. Norway, Argentina vs. Switzerland

The World Cup quarterfinals conclude with a Saturday doubleheader.

First, Harry Kane and England take on Erling Haaland and Norway in a meeting of two of the world’s best (and tallest) center forwards.

Then, Lionel Messi and Argentina continue their title defense when they meet a sneaky good Switzerland side.

Let’s take a look at our best bets for the twin bill.

England vs. Norway, Anytime Goal Scorer

Both Kane and Haaland have had exceptional tournaments, but only Haaland will be facing a makeshift England rearguard.

Jarell Quansah is serving a two-match ban after his sending off for a violent challenge in the 3-2 win over Mexico.

His fellow center back Marc Guehl is questionable heading into the encounter with a hamstring issue.

And England have conceded to every opponent who mustered even a hint of an attacking threat this tournament, with their two clean sheets coming against an overmatched Panama and a Ghana side content to play a very low block. Even the latter should’ve had a penalty when Esri Konsa’s airborne challenge on Prince Kwabena Adu went unpunished.

It’s not that Kane is unlikely to score here. But Haaland — whose seven goals this tournament have come in just four appearances — is facing more favorable circumstances, despite being at a cheaper price given Norway’s underdog status on the money line. At well better than even money and a 43.5% implied probability, he’s worth backing against an England rear guard that has been far from rigid.

Anytime goal scorer: Erling Haaland (+130, BetRivers)

England vs. Norway, Exact Team Goals

Norway has scored exactly twice in each of its knockout phase matches, and England has conceded exactly two goals in two of its five games so far.

And that’s a number Norway might be likely to land on again considering the circumstances. With Haaland and Martin Odegaard, they certainly have the quality to be able to solve England’s rearguard.

But the stakes of knockout play make it less likely that the Scandinavians would aggressively hunt for more rather than try to manage the lead.

Two goals might not even be enough to beat this England team, but a wager on that exact Norway total at a 23.8% implied probability is worth a play.

Exact Norway Goals: 2 (+320, theScore)

Argentina vs. Switzerland, Total Goals

Argentina have looked wobbly in their last two matches, and at first glance thei quarterfinal could be a tempting spot to back an underdog.

But with Switzerland hit with an injury to breakout performer Johan Monzambi, the better play is probably betting on the total to go over 2.5 goals.

Under manager Lionel Scaloni, Argentina have played eight knockout phase matches across two World Cups. The total has gone over during 90 minutes in all but one of those, thanks in no small part to the presence of Lionel Messi, the rare attacker who consistently outperforms expected-goal models.

Meanwhile, Switzerland played a somewhat dour 0-0 draw with Colombia in the round of 16 before triumphing on penalties.

But their lower chance creation and chance allowance numbers are based partly on the teams they’ve played: All three of their group opponents had attacking limitations. Colombia exited the tournament scoring only twice in its last 390 minutes.

Knockout football often gets tighter in the later stages, which is driving the price on the over down. But dynamics in Argentina matches have proven different. Take advantage with a bet on the over at a 43.9% implied probability.

Total over 2.5 goals (+128, Parx)