The races for the AL and NL Cy Young Awards were somewhat volatile during the early months of the season. We started with consensus favorites, then watched other leaders emerge and still other contenders make enough noise to keep things interesting.
But over the past six weeks or so, the races have stabilized to the point where clear favorites are pulling away. This is reflected in the latest Cy Young poll, which shows two familiar names with commanding leads over the rest of the field in their respective leagues.
A total of 33 MLB.com experts cast votes for who they think will take home the hardware after the season based not only on the results from the first half, but also how things are expected to go the rest of the way.
As always, voters were asked to rank their top five picks in each league. Pitchers received vote points on a 5-4-3-2-1 scale — five points for a first-place vote, four points for a second-place vote and so on. Here are the results.
All stats are through Sunday.
1. Cam Schlittler, Yankees (154 total vote points; 23 first-place votes)
The AL Cy Young race has been The Cam Schlittler Show for a while. This is the third straight poll in which he’s placed first, and it’s easy to see why. The All-Star righty (9-6) leads the AL with a 2.20 ERA, a 2.72 FIP and 123 innings pitched, and also leads all AL pitchers with 4.1 bWAR. He’s allowed more than three earned runs just twice this season and has held opponents to a .205 average, the best mark in the AL. Meanwhile, his 0.96 WHIP is second-best in the AL by just one percentage point to another pitcher on this list.
2. Dylan Cease, Blue Jays (142 total vote points, 10 first-place votes)
Cease (6-4) has been a consistent No. 2 in these polls as he continues to put up impressive numbers. He leads the AL with 148 strikeouts and his .190 opponents’ average would easily lead the league if he had enough innings to qualify. The righty missed about two weeks with a hamstring injury in late May/early June, allowing him just 98 1/3 innings entering Monday. Related: His 2.56 ERA would rank third in the AL if he had the innings. However, he has a 1.73 ERA since returning from the IL on June 9.
3. Joe Ryan, Twins (58 total vote points)
Ryan (6-5) is up one spot since the last poll as he continues to be one of the more effective pitchers in the AL. His 2.85 ERA ranks fifth in the league while his 1.05 WHIP ranks sixth. The righty had allowed two earned runs total over his past three outings and allowed 1.4 earned runs per game over his past seven starts, although his most recent outing on Monday night was a rough one in which he allowed eight runs on six homers. And while not overpowering, Ryan has 128 strikeouts in 110 1/3 innings and has averaged 7.6 K’s per game since May 20.
If Gray (12-1) were more of a strikeout pitcher, he’d have a shot at the AL’s Pitching Triple Crown this season. His 12 wins are tied for most among all MLB pitchers, while his 2.48 ERA ranks second in the AL behind Schlittler. Alas, his 90 strikeouts rank 24th. But that doesn’t really matter, because Gray has been dominant in his own way. He’s pitched to a 1.11 ERA over his past five starts and has a 1.99 ERA since April 20.
Rasmussen’s 0.95 WHIP is the best in the AL, in large part because he rarely issues walks. The All-Star righty’s 1.5 BB/9 ratio is MLB’s best, and it helped him enjoy a dominant June in which he had a 0.82 ERA across five starts (33 innings). Overall, Rasmussen (7-5) has a 3.26 ERA, which ranked eighth in the AL entering Monday.
Messick (8-5) has enjoyed a strong rookie season that included a trip to the All-Star Game. The lefty’s 2.73 ERA was fourth-best in the AL through Sunday while his .209 opponents’ average was tied for second-best. Meanwhile, his 1.07 WHIP ranked seventh. He’s allowed more than three earned runs in a start just three times.
Also receiving votes: Tarik Skubal, Tigers; Jacob deGrom, Rangers; Davis Martin, White Sox; Nick Martinez, Rays; Reid Detmers, Angels; Emerson Hancock, Mariners; Gavin Williams, Guardians; Logan Gilbert, Mariners; Ranger Suarez, Red Sox; Bryan Woo, Mariners
Like Schlittler in the AL, The Miz (10-4) appears fixed atop the NL portion of this poll. But that’s to be expected after the kind of dominance he’s displayed in recent months with his consistent triple-digit heat. Since May 1, a span of 12 starts, Misiorowski has pitched to a 0.92 ERA in 78 1/3 innings and has an MLB-best 13.5 K/9 ratio. He also leads all qualified MLB starters with a 1.73 ERA, a 2.09 FIP, a 0.76 WHIP and 167 strikeouts. With 10 wins so far, he has an outside shot at the MLB Pitching Triple Crown, which hasn’t happened in a full season since Johan Santana did it for the Twins in 2006.
Sánchez (11-4) has had stretches this season when he looked like the best pitcher in baseball — most notably when he tossed 50 2/3 scoreless innings, the fifth-longest single-season streak since 1893 and the longest ever by a lefty. Though he’s come down to Earth a little since that streak ended, he’s still one of the toughest pitchers to beat. His 2.62 ERA ranks fourth in the NL, while his 144 strikeouts rank second. In all, he’s been worth 5.2 bWAR, the highest mark among all MLB pitchers.
Sale (10-6) seems to get better with age. At 37, he’s the oldest pitcher on this list. But he certainly doesn’t pitch like it. The 10-time All-Star lefty’s 2.06 ERA is second-best in the Majors, and he’s not allowed more than three earned runs in a start since early April. The 2024 NL Cy Young winner still maintains a 10.5 K/9 ratio and his 123 strikeouts rank seventh in the NL.
4. Zack Wheeler, Phillies (41 total vote points, 1 first-place vote)
Wheeler’s 2.13 ERA would rank third in the Majors if he had the innings to qualify. The righty (10-1) didn’t make his season debut until late April after having thoracic outlet surgery last September, but he’s pitched like the prime version of himself this season, even if he doesn’t yet show up on leaderboards. His 0.89 WHIP would rank second in the league, as would his .185 opponents’ average.
Burns (11-1) has consistently shown why the Reds wanted to sign him to a seven-year, $105 million contract extension. From April 16 through June 21, a stretch of 12 starts, the hard-throwing righty pitched to a 1.69 ERA with 84 strikeouts in 69 1/3 innings. His 11 wins are tied for second-most in the NL while his 2.54 ERA ranks third. Meanwhile, opponents are hitting .206 against him, which ranks fourth in the NL.
Also receiving votes: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers; Paul Skenes, Pirates (1 first-place vote); Jesus Luzardo, Phillies; Max Meyer, Marlins; Mason Miller, Padres; Eduardo Rodriguez, D-backs; Foster Griffin, Nationals; Braxton Ashcraft, Pirates
