We’ve never had a World Cup Final quite like Sunday’s showdown between Spain and Argentina in East Rutherford, N.J.
Spain enter the match as the reigning European champions, and were oddsmakers’ favorites coming into the tournament. Argentina are the back-to-back South American champs and the World Cup title defenders.
In what should be a fascinating encounter, here are five factors that may determine who lifts soccer’s most cherished trophy.
Who takes the lead?
Spain have yet to play from behind in this tournament. Argentina have come from behind twice in the knockout phase alone. Yet it’s probably Argentina for whom the first goal is more important.
The reason is Spain’s exceptional ability to keep the ball, something that becomes lethal when playing with a lead.
Look at their 2-0 semifinal victory over slightly favored France. After France conceded early through a careless penalty given away by left back Lucas Digne, conventional wisdom suggested Les Bleus would be the aggressors from that point forward.
Only La Roja wouldn’t allow it. While they adjusted their posture slightly, they still finished the match with more completed passes and far more expected goals generated. That came in addition to also winning more tackles and making more successful clearances.
This won’t be a side that backs into a lower block to allow Lionel Messi and his charges back into a match on their terms, as did England in the semifinal.
Can Rodrigo de Paul turn back time?
Against a Spanish central midfield that is arguably the world’s best, it’s unclear whether Argentina can depend on Rodrigo de Paul to counter that strength.
Lionel Messi’s teammate at Inter Miami and the World Cup, de Paul was surprisingly benched for the semifinal clash against England, coming off the bench on the hour mark with Argentina seeking a goal.
The concern there was England’s pace on the wings, something Spain won’t match. But it’s hard to deny that de Paul has not performed as consistently as a midfield wrecking ball in 2026 as he did in 2022.
If Argentina are going to contain Fabian Ruiz and Dani Olmo, de Paul will have to give a vintage performance. We’ll see whether he’s capable, and whether the limited minutes against England helped him remain fresh.
Which Lamine Yamal shows up?
While the 39-year-old Messi has been an age-defying marvel in this tournament, 18-year-old Spanish starlet Lamine Yamal is still seeking his signature moment.
That’s understandable. The FC Barcelona phenom had to rehab from a nasty April hamstring injury, and only in the last three matches has he been good for 90 minutes.
His most critical involvement in this competition was the pressure he applied leading to Digne’s penalty-worthy foul.
Spain haven’t needed his best level to reach the final. But if he achieves it Sunday, it could tilt the probabilities more heavily in Spain’s favor.
Who is better between Unai and Emi?
Unai Simón has been Spain’s established starter since the 2020 European Championships (held in 2021). Emi Martinez claimed Argentina’s top goalkeeping spot around the same time at the 2021 Copa America.
Both have proven dependable in their regular goalkeeping duties and heroic when it comes to penalties. Martinez famously helped Argentina defeat France in the tiebreaker during their 2022 World Cup Final. Simon helped Spain capture the 2023 UEFA Nations League title by thwarting two Croatian penalty takers.
It would be a surprise if either goalkeeper isn’t up for the occasion. But the difference could lie in which man makes the save he isn’t supposed to make, or potentially even which has the better shootout showing.
Will the 12th man lift Argentina?
Argentina have played all of their matches before a heavily pro-Argentinian crowd. The same hasn’t been true of Spain, who have enjoyed solid but less sizable support.
The dynamic at Sunday’s final will likely be pro-Argentine again, just as it was at the 2022 final in Qatar.
Fans can’t make plays on the field. But they can provide their players with energy, and sometimes subconsciously influence officiating decisions.
And on what is likely to be a steamy and difficult afternoon, that could be more important than ever.
