Buy or sell? While a number of teams know which side of the fence they’re on, there’s a glut of teams in the middle that probably have no idea what they’re going to do.
This year’s muddled playoff picture has a lot to do with that, especially in the American League. Coming out of the All-Star break, 23 of the 30 MLB teams were within four games of a postseason spot, putting a long list of clubs on the bubble with the Trade Deadline less than three weeks away.
As we wait for the situation to sort itself out, here are the seven most interesting bubble teams we’re keeping an eye on.
All stats below are through Friday.
Detroit may hold the keys to the entire Trade Deadline. The Tigers looked like surefire sellers a few weeks ago, but they have AL’s best record (23-14) since June 1 and were within 3 1/2 games of a Wild Card spot entering Saturday, complicating the status of this year’s top trade chip, two-time Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal. If the Tigers continue to build on that success, they could opt to hold Skubal and fellow pending free agents such as Casey Mize, Gleyber Torres and Jack Flaherty and perhaps even become buyers, with an eye on making a run to the World Series before they potentially lose Skubal this offseason.
Nothing can be ruled out when general manager A.J. Preller is involved. If the Padres end up selling, which has become a real possibility after they closed the first half mired in a 19-30 cold spell, Preller may very well trade flamethrowing closer Mason Miller just a year after acquiring him for a package headlined by top prospect Leo De Vries. And if they turn things around over the next couple weeks and end up buying, don’t put it past Preller to swing for the fences and land a marquee name like Skubal. It’s all on the table.
Much like the Tigers, the Red Sox looked like clear sellers not long ago, and closer Aroldis Chapman and starter Sonny Gray were widely expected to be dealt before hitting free agency. But after starting out 32-46, Boston has suddenly reversed course. The Red Sox have won 11 straight games and 16 of their last 18 to get back to .500. Maybe that stretch will prove to be a mirage, and Chapman and Gray will be dealt after all. Or maybe Boston is just getting started — and chief baseball officer Craig Breslow finds himself shopping for offensive help to complement a rotation that, if healthy, could be a genuine weapon come October.
The Pirates are second in the Majors in runs scored and have a rotation — led by Paul Skenes, Braxton Ashcraft and Jared Jones — that could be formidable in the postseason. They just need to get there, which is something they haven’t done since 2015. Given that drought, and with Skenes’ service-time clock slowly ticking as free agency looms at the end of 2029, the Bucs should be aggressive buyers this year. Whether they actually are is anyone’s guess. As it stands, the Pirates are 1 1/2 games out in the NL Wild Card race. Every time they’ve seemed ready to make a leap, they’ve gone backwards instead. We can’t rule out a post-break swoon that drops them further out of the race and forces the front office to consider moving pending free agent Brandon Lowe, who leads all second basemen in homers (21) and RBIs (64) this season.
Coming off a disappointing 75-87 campaign in 2025, the Orioles were one of baseball’s most active teams over the offseason, adding a slew of veterans highlighted by Pete Alonso, Taylor Ward and Shane Baz. The result? A 47-51 record through 98 games, only marginally better than where they were at this point in 2025 (44-54). Of course, that’s good enough to put them right in the mix for an AL Wild Card spot this year. President of baseball operations Mike Elias said last month that the O’s would be “going for it” at the Trade Deadline, and it doesn’t appear that much has changed since then. If Baltimore is forced to pivot, we could see Ward and Trevor Rogers get moved before free agency. Catcher Adley Rutschman’s name also has come up in trade rumors. Elias downplayed the chances of a trade when asked about Rutschman in June, saying the Orioles wanted Rutschman to be “here forever.” But with fellow backstop Samuel Basallo signed to a long-term deal and Rutschman under control for only one more year past 2026, anything is possible.
While center fielder Byron Buxton isn’t going anywhere, the Twins still have two of this year’s premier trade assets in starter Joe Ryan and catcher Ryan Jeffers. The problem for teams that might be eyeing those players is that Minnesota — even at 49-49 — was tied for the third AL Wild Card spot entering Saturday. If the Twins remain close, they could hold onto both of them, but whether they should is up for debate. With their roster, they don’t seem to have much of a chance of making a deep playoff run this year, so it’s arguably in their best interest to move Jeffers — a pending free agent — as well as Ryan. The latter is controllable through 2027, but keeping Ryan beyond ’26 would be a risky move as the club found out with Pablo López. Minnesota retained López and Ryan while selling at last year’s Deadline, only to lose him to a torn UCL. Ryan’s trade value as a controllable asset is also higher now that he’ll be as a rental option next summer.
We keep waiting for the Blue Jays to start playing like the team that almost won the World Series last year, but it hasn’t happened yet. Toronto hasn’t been above .500 since April 3, at 4-3. While the Blue Jays are still only 3 1/2 games out in the race for the third AL Wild Card spot, they are behind five other teams and had the fourth-longest playoff odds in the AL at 15.5% (per FanGraphs) as of Saturday morning. A post-break surge could give the Blue Jays’ front office the motivation it needs to buy at the Trade Deadline as the club looks to finish its championship mission. But if Toronto doesn’t start playing better soon, it would make sense to start planning ahead for 2027, which would mean shopping pending free agents such as Kevin Gausman, Daulton Varsho and George Springer.
