NFL playoff picture: What does Texans-Raiders mean for AFC standings in Week 16

The Houston Texans are closing in on a playoff berth, but it will be at least another week before they will have a clinching scenario. The Texans host the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 16 and this is a game they absolutely cannot lose.

The Texans are 9-5 and have won six straight in a streak that has included wins over the Jaguars, Bills, Colts, and Chiefs. They beat the Cardinals 40-20 last week. The Texans face a Raiders squad that is 2-12 and has lost eight straight games. Last week, the Raiders were thumped by the Eagles 31-0 in Philly.

Houston is a 14.5-point favorite, which is the biggest spread of Week 16.

Houston Texans playoff picture

AFC South standings

The Texans are in second place in the division sitting one game back of the Jaguars. Houston and Jacksonville split their season series and the Texans have a half game lead for the divisional tiebreaker (4-1 vs. 3-1). The Jaguars are traveling to face the Broncos this weekend, so if they lose that but win their two remaining games, the tiebreaker would go to record in common games.

Meanwhile, the Colts sit a game back of the Texans and still has one game left with them. Houston won the first game in Week 13. The Colts need to see the Texans lose in Week 16 or 17 to create a situation in which the Colts can finish ahead of them.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars: 10-4
2. Houston Texans: 9-5
3. Indianapolis Colts: 8-6
4. Tennessee Titans: 2-12

AFC playoff standings

The Texans are in seventh place and hold the final wild card spot ahead of the 8-6 Colts and 7-7 Ravens. If the Texans win and the Colts lose, Houston would have a wild card clinching scenario in Week 17 when they travel to face the Chargers. The Texans enter Week 16 with a 98% chance of making the playoffs at The Athletic’s playoff simulator. Houston has a 58% chance of claiming a wild card berth and a 40% chance of winning the division.

1. Denver Broncos: 12-2
2. New England Patriots: 12-2
3. Jacksonville Jaguars: 10-4
4. Pittsburgh Steelers: 8-6
5. Los Angeles Chargers: 10-4
6. Buffalo Bills: 10-4
7. Houston Texans: 9-5
8. Indianapolis Colts: 8-6
9. Baltimore Ravens: 7-7

Tiebreaker implications

The Raiders are a common opponent for the Texans and Jaguars. There is a very real chance the Texans and Jaguars finish tied and it common opponents. They are also a common opponent with the Chargers, but Houston and LA will have a head-to-head tiebreaker sorted out when they meet in Week 17.