Saturday MLB Best Bets: Marlins vs. Mets, Yankees vs. Cubs Picks

It’s Saturday, and we all know what that means—a day full of baseball to watch and bet on. The day’s action is starting a little later than usual for the weekend at 3:07 p.m. EST (Cardinals vs. Blue Jays), but that’s okay. It just means you have more time to check out our MLB Best Bets.

You’ve got plenty of great markets to choose from, but the following are my top picks for the day (odds via FanDuel):

Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets

Under 9 at -115

The Mets have hit .230 over the last week (34 runs, seven games) and the Marlins .242 (29 runs, seven games). We really shouldn’t expect either to do more; the Marlins are hitting .250 for the season and the Mets .233.

As for the pitching matchup, advantage Mets. Zac Thornton (2-1, 2.43 ERA, 0.91 WHIP) is more likely to go deep into the game (6+ innings in four of five starts). Miami is less certain: Tyler Phillips has struggled on the road (0-4, 6.23 ERA, .281 OBA), but the Mets’ weak hitting should limit the damage.

I’d lean towards taking the Mets to win, but for this game, the best bet is going to be the Under. Neither team is hitting well, and both pitchers have been solid overall. If Phillips struggles, the Marlins bullpen can pick up the slack (4.05 ERA, .237 OBA).

New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs

Yankees ML at -118

The same problem that has plagued the Yankees for much of the season persisted: they don’t get on base much. They have one of the lower OBPs in baseball at .311, and over the last week it has been worse (.270). It’s a good thing Will Warren and the bullpen combined for a shutout.

New York had a slight pitching advantage yesterday, but it will be more pronounced today. Yankees starter Max Fried has been lights out on the road this season (4-2 in eight starts with a 2.66 ERA). The New York bullpen has the best ERA in baseball (3.28).

David Peterson is scheduled to start for the Cubs. So far this season, he is 2-4 at home in ten appearances (six starts) with a 7.51 ERA and a .312 OBA. But should he get pulled early, the bullpen might keep them in the game (4.13 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, .244 OBA).

However, with the Cubs hitting .298 over the last week, I don’t trust the Yankees (who have hit .201) to cover the run line. New York will win, but don’t bank on them to cover. They have, more often than not, covered after a win (32-29 ATS (run line).

But it is hard to count on a team hitting .201 over the last week to win by two.