Let the Tarik Skubal sweepstakes begin.
The Tigers’ crushing loss on Wednesday – they blew a 7-0 lead before falling to the Orioles in 12 innings – may have been the final blow to Detroit’s postseason hopes, as the Tigers dropped to 51-58, leaving them 4.5 games out of the final American League Wild Card spot.
“If there was ever a sign that the Tigers should trade Skubal, that was it,” a National League executive said. “The offers should start flowing in any minute.”
Skubal, the two-time defending AL Cy Young Award winner, is expected to bring a big return for the Tigers, who would otherwise face the prospect of losing the left-hander to free agency for nothing more than a compensatory Draft pick.
There will be no shortage of suitors for Skubal, with the Dodgers, Brewers and Rays leading the pack. The Cubs and Braves will likely take their shot, too, and while the Yankees and Phillies have been mentioned as possibilities, sources believe those two clubs are long shots, as they have other holes to fill by Monday’s Trade Deadline.
“The Brewers, Rays and Dodgers have the most high-end prospects to move,” one source said. “It would be somewhat surprising if he didn’t wind up with one of those three teams.”
The Brewers have six players on MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 prospect list, headlined by No. 1 overall prospect Jesùs Made. All six of Milwaukee’s top prospects are position players, giving them a number of trade chips to use in a Skubal deal.
The Rays only have three players on that Top 100 list, and while the belief within the industry is that Tampa Bay won’t include its top prospect, outfielder Theo Gillen (No. 9 overall in MLB), in a deal, the Rays’ Top 30 list is widely considered to be deep and impressive.
That list is so exhaustive that 11 of the Rays’ Top 30 (including three of the Top 10) will be eligible for this year’s Rule 5 Draft, creating a potential roster crunch in the offseason.
Furthering the Rays’ situation – specifically the need for a frontline arm – is Shane McClanahan’s health, as the left-hander exited Thursday’s start in the fourth inning with what the club called “mid-back tightness.” If McClanahan is sidelined for more than a few days, it could increase Tampa Bay’s urgency to acquire a starting pitcher.
Then we have the Dodgers, who many believe are the favorites to land Skubal by Monday.
On paper, the Dodgers don’t appear to have a pressing need for a starting pitcher, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell, Shohei Ohtani, Roki Sasaki, Justin Wrobleski, Emmet Sheehan and Eric Lauer currently on the roster. But Snell and Glasnow have been on the injured list for most of the season, Ohtani is currently shut down from pitching, Sasaki has been inconsistent as a starter and the others don’t possess track records to make them locks for the postseason rotation.
Adding Skubal to pair with Yamamoto atop the rotation would make the Dodgers huge favorites as they pursue a three-peat, taking pressure off Snell, Glasnow and Ohtani as they work their way back to a big league mound.
The Dodgers have nine players on MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 prospect list, giving them a deep well of talent from which to deal. Four of their top five prospects are outfielders, all of whom rank in the top 25 of the Top 100 list.
The Dodgers could include Wrobleski in a Skubal deal, giving the Tigers a controllable arm – the 26-year-old is under club control for five more seasons – to replace their ace in the rotation, which would give them a chance to chase down the final Wild Card spot even after trading Skubal.
Of course, the Tigers could take a more aggressive approach this week if they trade Skubal, as Detroit has a number of other players it could look to move. Second baseman Gleyber Torres and starter Casey Mize are both impending free agents, while relievers Kenley Jansen ($12 million club option for 2027), Drew Anderson ($10 million club option for 2027) and Kyle Finnegan ($8 million salary in 2027 and a $10 million mutual option for 2028) could also be trade possibilities.
“If they trade Skubal, there’s no reason for them not to trade all of those guys,” an AL executive said. “It should be all or nothing, and it certainly seems like they’re leaning toward all.”
