It’s the defining question of this year’s Trade Deadline: Will Tarik Skubal be dealt? But perhaps just as important for potential suitors is this: what exactly are they buying?
The Tigers took two of three from the Angels and Cubs in their first two series coming out of the All-Star break, moving their record to 26-16 (through Wednesday) since June 1. But with Skubal eligible for free agency at the end of this season and Detroit still facing long odds in its push to make the playoffs, the trade rumors aren’t going to stop.
By Deadline day, Skubal will have roughly 50 innings under his belt post-surgery, and rival evaluators will undoubtedly be poring through the data, trying to figure out how close this version of Skubal is to the one who won the past two American League Cy Young Awards.
Here’s what the numbers show entering Friday’s start. (All stats below are through Wednesday.)
Just as a reminder of the heights Skubal is chasing, the left-hander recorded a 2.30 ERA with a 0.91 WHIP, a 10.9 K/9 and a 6.9 K/BB ratio across 2024-25.
Skubal wasn’t that sharp in his first three starts after returning from the IL, allowing nine earned runs on 16 hits — including six homers — in 16 1/3 innings. But his past four outings have been vintage Skubal: four earned on 15 hits (two homers) and a 10.7 K/BB (32 strikeouts, three walks) over 23 innings.
His start against the Angels on July 18 was easily the best he’s looked since his return, as he fired seven scoreless innings with nine strikeouts, no walks and five hits allowed (all singles).
Some of Skubal’s underlying metrics paint an even rosier picture of his comeback, as he’s been getting swings outside the zone, missing bats and limiting hard contact at an elite level since he came off the IL.
Among the 123 starting pitchers who have faced at least 100 batters since June 13, Skubal ranks at or near the top with a 34.3% whiff rate (sixth best), a 37.4% chase rate (tied for eighth best) and a 23.4% hard-hit rate allowed (best).
He’s allowed a .260 expected wOBA — based on strikeouts, walks and quality of contact — since returning, nearly identical to his .258 xwOBA against from 2024-25.
This is perhaps the clearest indication that Skubal is no worse for the wear. His arsenal looks every bit as impressive as it did before his surgery.
Skubal’s Stuff+ rating, a metric available on FanGraphs that grades a pitcher’s repertoire based on characteristics such as velocity, movement and spin rate, was 118 in 2024-25, tops among qualified pitchers. His Stuff+ rating since June 13? 119, again placing him first among qualifiers.
Best Stuff+ rating since June 13
1. Tarik Skubal: 119
2. Cristopher Sánchez: 116
3. Logan Gilbert: 115
4. Cam Schlittler: 114
5. Jesús Luzardo: 113
Unlike many performance metrics that take a long time to stabilize, Stuff+ becomes reliable after just 80 pitches, so the distinction carries extra weight for evaluators sizing up Skubal only seven starts into his return.
The verdict? Skubal grades out as slightly less dominant than his 2024-25 peak in a few areas, but the gap isn’t nearly wide enough to scare off suitors, especially given how strong his underlying metrics and stuff have looked since he came back.
